Spartan Spirit - Best for the West - Episode 2: Decision Making
Decision Making Podcast Notes
The AUKUS partnership is code for “deter Chinese aggression”. After some initial hesitation, some politicians are now calling a spade a spade and have been talking about the Chinese threat more openly, but there is still too much soft language around the issue.
If the Chinese threat is as dire as Western leaders are implying, why the soft approach?
What is so hard about making a decision to act much tougher on deterring China?
In a time of heightened strategic tension between the world’s major powers we need clear strategic decisions and communications to make sure we get this deterrence right because getting into a conflict would be devastating for the Western standard of living and economies.
Decision-making is critical.
Quotes:
· James Akins, U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia in 1990, regarding the Kuwait situation:
o “[Glaspie] took the straight American line, which is we do not take positions on border disputes between friendly countries. That's standard. That's what you always say. You would not have said, 'Mr. President, if you really are considering invading Kuwait, by God, we'll bring down the wrath of God on your palaces, and on your country, and you'll all be destroyed.' She wouldn't say that, nor would I. Neither would any diplomat.”
· US Army’s Gen. Stephen Townsend said that officers who served in Iraq and Afghanistan as junior and mid-grade leaders “had to have permission from a brigadier general and a stack of documents” for routine missions.
· General Mark Milley, US Army Chief of Staff, said that the US Army had become “over-centralized, overly bureaucratic, and overly risk-averse”.
· General William Tecumseh Sherman “‘Every attempt to make war easy and safe will end in disaster and humiliation.”
Australia’s WHS Act: “Nothing in this Act requires or permits a person to take any action, or to refrain from taking any action, that would be, or could reasonably be expected to be, prejudicial to Australia’s defence”.
References:
· Carl von Clausewitz, On War.
· Wing Commander Knighton, British Royal Air Force in ‘Defence Studies’ “The Psychology of Risk and its Role in Military Decision‐Making”.
· Major General Mick Ryan in The Forge, An Australian Intellectual Edge for Conflict and Competition in the 21st Century:
· globalsecurity.org, Time-sensitive targeting adds combat flexibility (globalsecurity.org)
· Nicholas Drake in strategy bridge.org , https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/10/7/aligning-risk-tolerance-to-meet-the-demands-of-complex-strategic-problems
· Personal research: Increasing numbers of Senior Officers relative to junior numbers: From 2007 to 2017, the number of star ranks in the ADF rose from 149 to 189, yet the ADF’s strength only increased from 51504 to 58680. Ie, the ratio changed from 1:345 to 1:310. Canada’s similarly sized military had a ratio of approximately 1:530 and the US Army had approximately 1:1300.
· Tom McDermott in The Cove https://cove.army.gov.au/article/tactical-spurs-part-2-finding-reward-risk
· LT COL William Bell, US Army “The Impact of Policies on Organizational Values”